Predictions of Universal Healthcare After Effects

As of 2011, the United States is the only industrialized nation without some form of universal or single-payer health care system open to all citizens. Although the Affordable Care Act, signed in 2010 by President Obama, took steps toward ensuring all Americans have access to health care, it is still a long way from being a universal system. Both proponents and opponents of truly universal health care cite diverse predicted the effects of implementing such a system.

Economic Predictions

• Opponents of universal health care argue that a single-payer system, if instituted in the United States, would raise unemployment, since it would hurt the profits of insurance companies. Proponents for a single-payer system predict the exact opposite; that universal health care would take the pressure off employers to provide health insurance to their employees and allow them to create more jobs. Both sides agree that taxes will have to be increased to fund universal care, but if universal care creates more jobs, this also creates a larger tax pool for the government to draw from. Single-payer health care proponents also predict that the necessary tax increase needed to fund the system would still work out to less than the average cost of private insurance premiums, which are steadily increasing at an average rate of 9.9% annually.

Quality of Care

• Quality of care is difficult to determine, since it can apply to many different things. For the most part, quality refers to the access and effectiveness of care. Universal health care's more vocal opponents consistently argue that a government-run system reduces patients' choices in doctors, but there is no existing universal model where this is the case: Patients choose doctors and treatments, the government merely pays for it. Universal health care's supporters also point out that, for people who cannot afford a simple doctor's visit, access to any care represents an increase in quality. Opponents of single-payer care counter with the prediction that wait times for tests and procedures will increase, and while some countries with universal plans have lengthy wait times for emergency care, supporters maintain that health care is a right, not a privilege, and longer wait times are acceptable if more people can access care.

Incentives for Doctors

• Since doctors' services in a universal system are paid for by the government and not patients or insurance providers, opponents of universal health care predict that doctors will make less money. They will no longer be able to set their own prices and there will be less financial incentive for young people to go into medicine, causing medical school enrollment to drop. Proponents of single-payer care counter with the prediction that doctors' priorities will be on genuine patient care, rather than their own bottom line. When doctors do not have incentives to provide or deny care based on a patient's insurance, supporters say, they will instead focus on giving the best possible care. Single-payer does not mean there are no incentives, either: Britain's National Health Service offers financial incentives to doctors who encourage patients to quit smoking and live healthier lives.

Effects on the Free Market

• Universal health care's strongest opponents are generally those who also believe in the free market, or the idea that business, when left to itself without government regulation, will benefit society by simple rules of supply and demand. They argue that introducing universal health care will irreparably damage the insurance industry by rendering their services unnecessary. Advocates of universal health care predict simply that insurance premiums will come down when people are no longer forced to rely on them for their care. In fact, nations with universal systems do still have insurance companies. This is because universal care does not pay for everything; in Canada, for example, most provincial care does not cover dental costs, prescription drugs or eye care. Private insurance companies still exist and offer plans that cover these costs.